In a sense, that's reasonable. Many Americans oppose President George W. Bush's policies, and many Europeans oppose the Franco-German position. But this is more than a question of public opinion at any given period. The fact is that, at the deepest intellectual and moral level, a divide is opening between Europe and the United States. And with that gap, the entire edifice of the post-War alliance structure is cracking apart.

From a practical point of view, we can already see the shifting alliances. What Turkey or Saudi Arabia or India do has a direct, potential effect on the United States. What Germany or France do really doesn't matter that much in a practical sense. Geography defines interests, and the geography of Europe has little to do with contemporary U.S. interests and fears in 2003. The Fulda Gap is infinitely less important than the Shatt al-Arab to the United States. History has turned, and the incomprehension and anger of the Europeans at Davos is directed less at the United States than at a lack of ability to control events.

Dr. George Friedman,
Chairman and Founder
STRATFOR
Jan 29, 2003

Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our Links section and at:
http://www.stratfor.com

This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher