Theoretically, Washington's desire creates an opportunity for the EU to spread its foreign policy wings. Both Spain, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana are pushing to have the EU take over NATO's current mission in Macedonia. This would allow the EU to put teeth into its Union-wide security policy by actually deploying joint military forces.
In reality, Europe is probably not prepared to take over peacekeeping operations in the Balkans. Europe's credibility as an objective overseer is low in the region, and incidents like the botched Karadzic operation undermine that credibility further. These problems will be exacerbated by the structure of a European defense force that is still based as much on balancing national representation as on functionality. Will a Macedonian trust a German-led force? Will a Kosovar Albanian trust a French-led force? Historical allegiances will make it difficult for Europe to act as one.
More important, Balkan states are themselves tools of a bigger geopolitical game between the major European players.
Germany is seeking to reassert itself at the center of Europe, and the Balkans play a big part in that strategy. It is an area where Germany can expand its military reach without frightening either itself or its neighbors. Berlin also would like to build on its ties with Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Bosnia and Bulgaria to pull both southern and eastern Europe under its wing as the EU expands. Berlin has several tools to entice Balkan governments: access to Europe's largest market, huge amounts of aid and investment, military training, weapons and technology. It is also much more closely connected to Balkan trade routes than France or the United Kingdom.
In reality, Europe is probably not prepared to take over peacekeeping operations in the Balkans. Europe's credibility as an objective overseer is low in the region, and incidents like the botched Karadzic operation undermine that credibility further. These problems will be exacerbated by the structure of a European defense force that is still based as much on balancing national representation as on functionality. Will a Macedonian trust a German-led force? Will a Kosovar Albanian trust a French-led force? Historical allegiances will make it difficult for Europe to act as one.
More important, Balkan states are themselves tools of a bigger geopolitical game between the major European players.
Germany is seeking to reassert itself at the center of Europe, and the Balkans play a big part in that strategy. It is an area where Germany can expand its military reach without frightening either itself or its neighbors. Berlin also would like to build on its ties with Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Bosnia and Bulgaria to pull both southern and eastern Europe under its wing as the EU expands. Berlin has several tools to entice Balkan governments: access to Europe's largest market, huge amounts of aid and investment, military training, weapons and technology. It is also much more closely connected to Balkan trade routes than France or the United Kingdom.