Moscow is increasingly frustrated by the presence of U.S. forces in Georgia, which effectively prevent Russian troops from entering the Pankisi Gorge in earnest for anti-terrorist measures. They are also frustrated by Washington's lack of acknowledgment of their own terrorism problem, a problem in which they feel Georgia and Shevardnadze are a part. This frustration has translated itself into a desire on Moscow's behalf for instability, if not chaos, in Georgia. Indeed, recently, Georgian officials expressed their beliefs that this is exactly Moscow's desire - to create enough instability and unpredictably in Georgia so

as to effectively deter both foreign interest and investment, therefore decreasing Washington's involvement and providing a pretext for Russian action.

Washington desires just the opposite: stability in Georgia and surrounding Azerbaijan and Armenia. This achieves many goals in the eyes of policymakers: a burgeoning resource rich region will be able to fully realize its production and transport capabilities; Moscow will be prevented from attempting to 'take back' Georgia on the pretext of general instability and the harboring of terrorists; and an additional military foothold will be established in the region, which is on Iraq and Iran's doorstep.

Facing this option, Tbilisi has chosen to side with their Western allies and financiers. Shevardnadze wants U.S. forces to remain, wants FDI (foreign direct investment) to continue to flow into his country, and now wants to become part of NATO. In short, he wants Georgia to be of great concern to the West. As these aims continue to be met, he is ensuring that his struggling country is less threatened by a Moscow with strong imperialist aspirations in the Southern Caucasus.

Matthew Riemer drafted this report; Erich Marquardt contributed. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com.

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