The conflicting U.S. factions have apparently struck a compromise wherein the training operations will be expanded but still constrained by geography and time. By restricting the U.S. forces to Basilan, the chances of an encounter with the MILF are significantly reduced. Furthermore, Abu Sayyaf forces appear to be fleeing their former stronghold and moving instead to Mindanao, Jolo and the Tawi Tawi islands. Sticking to the current six-week deadline for the end of the initial training exercises also limits the chances of U.S. forces coming under fire or being drawn into a larger conflict.
But a reduced U.S. presence on the ground in Basilan veils Washington's longer-term strategic interest in the Philippines, which sits astride the dividing line between the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. The Philippines is a perfectly located staging ground for any future al Qaeda-hunting Washington may wish or need to do in Southeast Asia - as well as an important strategic location in case relations with China turn sour.
The U.S. military is already undertaking considerable infrastructure improvements on Basilan, building roads and upgrading airstrips and port facilities. And during his early June visit to Manila, Wolfowitz lobbied for a logistics supply arrangement that would give the U.S. military storage facilities for fuel and supplies in the Philippines in return for continued assistance and equipment for the Philippine military.
If such a deal is signed -- and it is likely that Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will back it -- it would represent more than the creation of a supply dump. Rather, it would be more of a "contingency dump," a pre-positioning of U.S. supplies and fuel in case Washington needs to launch counterterrorism or other military operations in Southeast Asia.
Please also see "Philippines Hostage Raid", in our War of the Shadows section.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.
But a reduced U.S. presence on the ground in Basilan veils Washington's longer-term strategic interest in the Philippines, which sits astride the dividing line between the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. The Philippines is a perfectly located staging ground for any future al Qaeda-hunting Washington may wish or need to do in Southeast Asia - as well as an important strategic location in case relations with China turn sour.
The U.S. military is already undertaking considerable infrastructure improvements on Basilan, building roads and upgrading airstrips and port facilities. And during his early June visit to Manila, Wolfowitz lobbied for a logistics supply arrangement that would give the U.S. military storage facilities for fuel and supplies in the Philippines in return for continued assistance and equipment for the Philippine military.
If such a deal is signed -- and it is likely that Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will back it -- it would represent more than the creation of a supply dump. Rather, it would be more of a "contingency dump," a pre-positioning of U.S. supplies and fuel in case Washington needs to launch counterterrorism or other military operations in Southeast Asia.
Please also see "Philippines Hostage Raid", in our War of the Shadows section.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.