The United States is distracted with the stalemate between India and Pakistan, and Russia is preoccupied with the prospects of closer integration with Europe. China is trying to nudge its way into the narrow gap by emphasizing its similarities with the region, reiterating its potential to invigorate Central Asia's economies and, should all that fail, offering military assistance for local anti-terrorism operations.
Beijing is formalizing border agreements with Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, is pressing forward with plans to tap into Central Asian gas and oil reserves and has agreed to give $1.2 million in military-technical assistance to Kyrgyzstan and an additional $3 million to Kazakhstan. Beijing is also using its membership in the World Trade Organization to press for the inclusion of other Central Asian states into the body.
Yet ultimately, in the three-way competition between China, Russia and the United States for Central Asian influence, Beijing remains the dark horse. It cannot yet hope to counter Washington's money and resources and Moscow's historical leverage and ability to station troops in Central Asia. Instead it is taking a more long run, low-key approach to gaining influence in the region. In the meantime the countries in Central Asia will find themselves in a better position to gain concessions from each of these three as they compete for access to oil and gas reserves and a strategic position in the heart of Eurasia.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.
Beijing is formalizing border agreements with Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, is pressing forward with plans to tap into Central Asian gas and oil reserves and has agreed to give $1.2 million in military-technical assistance to Kyrgyzstan and an additional $3 million to Kazakhstan. Beijing is also using its membership in the World Trade Organization to press for the inclusion of other Central Asian states into the body.
Yet ultimately, in the three-way competition between China, Russia and the United States for Central Asian influence, Beijing remains the dark horse. It cannot yet hope to counter Washington's money and resources and Moscow's historical leverage and ability to station troops in Central Asia. Instead it is taking a more long run, low-key approach to gaining influence in the region. In the meantime the countries in Central Asia will find themselves in a better position to gain concessions from each of these three as they compete for access to oil and gas reserves and a strategic position in the heart of Eurasia.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.