A new geopolitical era has emerged, and such eras do not emerge suddenly -- they do so over time and in phases. Everything changes with them. Thus far, three phases have elapsed in the emergence of the new era:
1. The collapse of the Soviet Union.
2. The rise of the United States as the world's only superpower.
3. The events of Sept. 11, 2001, and the U.S. fixation on the defeat of al Qaeda and all varieties of Islamic anti-Americanism.
It is far from clear that this U.S.-Islamist confrontation will be the pre-eminent feature of the international system forever. What is clear, however, is that the United States will remain the world's only superpower for an extended period of time. This is not a U.S.-centric view of the world; it simply defines the reality of the international system. There are several potential powers that could emerge as integrated, complete superpowers, but each suffers from tremendous burdens:
1. Europe: In the abstract, all that Europe would need to challenge U.S. power would be a military force comparable to that of the United States. But to establish such a force, Europe would have to reach a level of political integration that is unlikely. Indeed, the very notion of Europe has meaning only in an economic sense, not in a political or military sense. Therefore, Europe can have a global economic effect, but it cannot be a superpower until it solves fundamental political questions.
1. The collapse of the Soviet Union.
2. The rise of the United States as the world's only superpower.
3. The events of Sept. 11, 2001, and the U.S. fixation on the defeat of al Qaeda and all varieties of Islamic anti-Americanism.
It is far from clear that this U.S.-Islamist confrontation will be the pre-eminent feature of the international system forever. What is clear, however, is that the United States will remain the world's only superpower for an extended period of time. This is not a U.S.-centric view of the world; it simply defines the reality of the international system. There are several potential powers that could emerge as integrated, complete superpowers, but each suffers from tremendous burdens:
1. Europe: In the abstract, all that Europe would need to challenge U.S. power would be a military force comparable to that of the United States. But to establish such a force, Europe would have to reach a level of political integration that is unlikely. Indeed, the very notion of Europe has meaning only in an economic sense, not in a political or military sense. Therefore, Europe can have a global economic effect, but it cannot be a superpower until it solves fundamental political questions.