Ultimately Operation Anaconda will not finish off al Qaeda or even the Taliban fighters. Instead it signals the beginning of a protracted guerrilla war that will allow Afghanistan to continue to serve as sanctuary for al Qaeda. A guerrilla war -- against which the United States has found only one effective answer, overwhelming air power -- also could affect Washington's timeline for fighting terrorism in other parts of the world.
It appears to us that Operation Anaconda began after U.S. commanders received intelligence from warlord Zadran (also known as Badsha Khan), who controls much of Khost, the province east of Paktia. Zadran's information has proven questionable in the past, prompting U.S. forces to attack and kill innocent Afghans he had identified as Taliban or al Qaeda members. The biggest blunder occurred Dec. 20, when Zadran triggered the U.S. blitz of a convoy of Paktia's elders that killed about 65 people.
Zadran has a vested interest in talking the United States into attacking his rivals from Paktia: He is lobbying the government in Kabul to add both Paktia and Paktika provinces to his fief, which would make him the most powerful warlord in southeastern Afghanistan. More to the point, Zadran attempted to take Gardez, the capital of Paktia, a month ago but was repulsed by locals. Nevertheless the United States continues to rely on his information because Zadran, for his own purposes, eagerly puts his forces at the U.S. command's disposal, as is the case with Operation Anaconda.
It appears to us that Operation Anaconda began after U.S. commanders received intelligence from warlord Zadran (also known as Badsha Khan), who controls much of Khost, the province east of Paktia. Zadran's information has proven questionable in the past, prompting U.S. forces to attack and kill innocent Afghans he had identified as Taliban or al Qaeda members. The biggest blunder occurred Dec. 20, when Zadran triggered the U.S. blitz of a convoy of Paktia's elders that killed about 65 people.
Zadran has a vested interest in talking the United States into attacking his rivals from Paktia: He is lobbying the government in Kabul to add both Paktia and Paktika provinces to his fief, which would make him the most powerful warlord in southeastern Afghanistan. More to the point, Zadran attempted to take Gardez, the capital of Paktia, a month ago but was repulsed by locals. Nevertheless the United States continues to rely on his information because Zadran, for his own purposes, eagerly puts his forces at the U.S. command's disposal, as is the case with Operation Anaconda.