Both Egypt and Qatar have shown interest in supplying Lebanon with natural gas. Egypt could do so through a proposed pipeline that would run up the eastern side of the Mediterranean. And Qatar likely would send it in LNG form. Damascus could use the example of successful LPG exports to Lebanon to entice foreign investors to sponsor a Syrian natural gas pipeline to Lebanon.
But most important, energy ties are one more way that Syria can augment its control over Lebanon. Creating a dependency, especially in a vital field like energy, also creates influence. Syria has long kept control over Lebanon through political alliances and military occupation. But over the last few years, those particular tactics have met with compounding Lebanese resistance, which has ranged from political opposition to protests to small-scale bombings.
Damascus has retreated very little so far; it still maintains more than 20,000 troops throughout Lebanon and is a major political player. But it definitely has reason to be concerned and to diversify its levers of influence. Creating energy dependence is an excellent way to do this.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.
But most important, energy ties are one more way that Syria can augment its control over Lebanon. Creating a dependency, especially in a vital field like energy, also creates influence. Syria has long kept control over Lebanon through political alliances and military occupation. But over the last few years, those particular tactics have met with compounding Lebanese resistance, which has ranged from political opposition to protests to small-scale bombings.
Damascus has retreated very little so far; it still maintains more than 20,000 troops throughout Lebanon and is a major political player. But it definitely has reason to be concerned and to diversify its levers of influence. Creating energy dependence is an excellent way to do this.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.