What if a Shi'ite state based in Basra declared independence with covert support from Iran? North Iraqi Kurds, almost autonomous since 1991, could also declare independence, leaving a Sunni-dominated center. This could tempt Turkey to move into Mosul and Kirkuk. To keep post-Saddam Iraq united would need security forces of around 75,000, costing about $15 billion, for a year or two, and a force of more than 5,000 for many years after if the reconstruction effort is to succeed. But would the result be any different than in Afghanistan?
Most analysts scratch their heads, only to conclude that US options make little strategic sense. They feel that the leaking of "attack plans" are only psychological warfare. Their preferred option is to continue the existing policy of containment, combined with attempts to destabilize the Iraqi regime. A US attack could dangerously destabilize the region, harm the global economy, and infuriate Arab and Muslim masses. Former British chief of staff Field Marshal Lord Bramall, warned in a letter to the Times that an invasion would pour "petrol rather than water" on the flames and provide al-Qaeda with more recruits. He quoted a predecessor who during the 1956 Suez crisis said: "Of course we can get to Cairo, but what I want to know is what the bloody hell we do when we get there?"
Most analysts scratch their heads, only to conclude that US options make little strategic sense. They feel that the leaking of "attack plans" are only psychological warfare. Their preferred option is to continue the existing policy of containment, combined with attempts to destabilize the Iraqi regime. A US attack could dangerously destabilize the region, harm the global economy, and infuriate Arab and Muslim masses. Former British chief of staff Field Marshal Lord Bramall, warned in a letter to the Times that an invasion would pour "petrol rather than water" on the flames and provide al-Qaeda with more recruits. He quoted a predecessor who during the 1956 Suez crisis said: "Of course we can get to Cairo, but what I want to know is what the bloody hell we do when we get there?"