Brussels - Against the background of the Iranian nuclear program and of the overall political setting of the Middle East it is important to focus on Israel's nuclear strategy as the former possibilities of the superpowers to control and fence in the conflicts in the Middle East have given way to new power structures.
A significant asymmetry has developed with respect to motivation and determination of some Middle East countries in comparison with Israel and its patron the United States.
During the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT) in New York in May 2000, Israel did not take part in the conference and did not send even an observer. The United States prevented the conference from taking any measures against Israel on the subject.
Over the years, it has become more difficult for the United States to bring its power of deterrence to bear in the Middle East. Despite close relations with the United States, Israel is no longer a "bastion" against Soviet communism in the Middle East.
Israel's role in context of American foreign policy in the Middle East regained significance in the Middle East in view of the fact that Russia, now as a new patron for Iran and Syria, is engaged in an effort to re-establish its power in the region.
One thing can be said with certainty, the structural transformation on the international scene has led to a clear reduction in Israel's deterrence power.
Modern weapons systems are easy to purchase, as former limitations on the transfer of weapons and the needed technology diminish. Apart from China and North Korea, Russia is the chief contact in this field.
The drawn conclusion in the Middle East is that the acquisition of nuclear weapons in the future will confront the United States with a much more awkward situation than in the past. The proliferation of nuclear weapons will - above and beyond the far-reaching missiles already at the disposal of some Middle East countries - lead to new risks.
Iran's nuclear program began under the Shah in 1974, but was abruptly suspended following the Islamic revolution in 1978-1979. It was not until 1984 that Ayatollah Khomeini revived Iran's nuclear weapons program. Only a few experts doubt Iran's intention to develop a covert nuclear program as a strategic equalizer. With it Israel lost its monopoly on nuclear weapons, and it should not be ruled out that Israel will find itself confronted with several nuclear powers in the Middle East.
The dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and Israel's relative military superiority, affects the thinking of all the states in the region. Even without Israel, there are inter-Arab and regional rivalries that provide impetus for proliferation. In view of an increasing transformation of the situation in the Middle East, it seems no longer expedient for Israel to stick to the "ambiguity" of it own choice regarding nuclear capabilities.
Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons, preferring to leave its nuclear capabilities undefined, although the fact of their existence is not in doubt. For years, evidence has been pilling up pointing to a stockpile of nuclear arms, including missile-borne nuclear warheads and tactical bombs for the battlefield. Israel could have thus produced, according to European intelligence sources, enough plutonium for at least 100 nuclear weapons, but according to those sources, not significantly more than 200 weapons.
Israel's current nuclear and missile development plans will continue the unavoidable result that countries in the region will re-evaluate their defense policies. Some will accelerate the existing development projects, and other will revive “forgotten” projects.
With respect to the expected loss of the monopoly on nuclear weapons in the Middle East and the continuing of the peace process, it will be difficult for Israel's strategic planners to ensure the action options regarded as necessary, including escalation dominance. If Israel joins the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and links its expectations with respect to a absolute compliance with other agreements, it would give higher priority to the diplomatic peace process.
A full Arab-Israeli peace agreement will rob Israel of its security arguments and the United States of its pretext for applying a policy of double standards. Israel is one of only four nations that have not signed the NPT which was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technology. (Cuba, Israel, India and Pakistan.)
Israel will soon find itself in a situation where it has to decide, and this will happen in the near future, whether it openly sees its nuclear capacity as an instrument of threat. The objectives of a total nuclear disarmament in the Middle East, will not be achieved as long as it excludes Israel. As long as one other country has the potential in the Middle East, to make and use nuclear weapons it makes no sense for any country to give up altogether its own nuclear capacity.
The new political conditions in the Middle East have given Iran and Syria greater room to maneuver, which finds its expression in reduced sensitivity towards conventional Israeli deterrence.
Israel Rafalovich
Please also see:
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)
http://www.un.org/Depts/dda/WMD/treaty
http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt
US DU Bunker Busters Arrive In Israel
http://www.rense.com/general73/bunk.htm
Israel as an Island Nation; A Personal Comment on Israel/Palestine, by Paul V. Rafferty http://www.unobserver.com/index.php?pagina=layout5.php&id=2475&blz=1
Edward Teller, 'Father of the Hydrogen Bomb', has Died at the Age of 95, by Christiane N. Martens
http://www.unobserver.com/index.php?pagina=layout4.php&id=1034&blz=1
The Bombing of Nagasaki August 9, 1945: The Untold Story, presented by Dr. Gary G. Kohls
http://www.unobserver.com/index.php?pagina=layout5.php&id=2518&blz=1
A significant asymmetry has developed with respect to motivation and determination of some Middle East countries in comparison with Israel and its patron the United States.
During the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT) in New York in May 2000, Israel did not take part in the conference and did not send even an observer. The United States prevented the conference from taking any measures against Israel on the subject.
Over the years, it has become more difficult for the United States to bring its power of deterrence to bear in the Middle East. Despite close relations with the United States, Israel is no longer a "bastion" against Soviet communism in the Middle East.
Israel's role in context of American foreign policy in the Middle East regained significance in the Middle East in view of the fact that Russia, now as a new patron for Iran and Syria, is engaged in an effort to re-establish its power in the region.
One thing can be said with certainty, the structural transformation on the international scene has led to a clear reduction in Israel's deterrence power.
Modern weapons systems are easy to purchase, as former limitations on the transfer of weapons and the needed technology diminish. Apart from China and North Korea, Russia is the chief contact in this field.
The drawn conclusion in the Middle East is that the acquisition of nuclear weapons in the future will confront the United States with a much more awkward situation than in the past. The proliferation of nuclear weapons will - above and beyond the far-reaching missiles already at the disposal of some Middle East countries - lead to new risks.
Iran's nuclear program began under the Shah in 1974, but was abruptly suspended following the Islamic revolution in 1978-1979. It was not until 1984 that Ayatollah Khomeini revived Iran's nuclear weapons program. Only a few experts doubt Iran's intention to develop a covert nuclear program as a strategic equalizer. With it Israel lost its monopoly on nuclear weapons, and it should not be ruled out that Israel will find itself confronted with several nuclear powers in the Middle East.
The dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and Israel's relative military superiority, affects the thinking of all the states in the region. Even without Israel, there are inter-Arab and regional rivalries that provide impetus for proliferation. In view of an increasing transformation of the situation in the Middle East, it seems no longer expedient for Israel to stick to the "ambiguity" of it own choice regarding nuclear capabilities.
Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons, preferring to leave its nuclear capabilities undefined, although the fact of their existence is not in doubt. For years, evidence has been pilling up pointing to a stockpile of nuclear arms, including missile-borne nuclear warheads and tactical bombs for the battlefield. Israel could have thus produced, according to European intelligence sources, enough plutonium for at least 100 nuclear weapons, but according to those sources, not significantly more than 200 weapons.
Israel's current nuclear and missile development plans will continue the unavoidable result that countries in the region will re-evaluate their defense policies. Some will accelerate the existing development projects, and other will revive “forgotten” projects.
With respect to the expected loss of the monopoly on nuclear weapons in the Middle East and the continuing of the peace process, it will be difficult for Israel's strategic planners to ensure the action options regarded as necessary, including escalation dominance. If Israel joins the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and links its expectations with respect to a absolute compliance with other agreements, it would give higher priority to the diplomatic peace process.
A full Arab-Israeli peace agreement will rob Israel of its security arguments and the United States of its pretext for applying a policy of double standards. Israel is one of only four nations that have not signed the NPT which was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technology. (Cuba, Israel, India and Pakistan.)
Israel will soon find itself in a situation where it has to decide, and this will happen in the near future, whether it openly sees its nuclear capacity as an instrument of threat. The objectives of a total nuclear disarmament in the Middle East, will not be achieved as long as it excludes Israel. As long as one other country has the potential in the Middle East, to make and use nuclear weapons it makes no sense for any country to give up altogether its own nuclear capacity.
The new political conditions in the Middle East have given Iran and Syria greater room to maneuver, which finds its expression in reduced sensitivity towards conventional Israeli deterrence.
Israel Rafalovich
Please also see:
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)
http://www.un.org/Depts/dda/WMD/treaty
http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt
US DU Bunker Busters Arrive In Israel
http://www.rense.com/general73/bunk.htm
Israel as an Island Nation; A Personal Comment on Israel/Palestine, by Paul V. Rafferty http://www.unobserver.com/index.php?pagina=layout5.php&id=2475&blz=1
Edward Teller, 'Father of the Hydrogen Bomb', has Died at the Age of 95, by Christiane N. Martens
http://www.unobserver.com/index.php?pagina=layout4.php&id=1034&blz=1
The Bombing of Nagasaki August 9, 1945: The Untold Story, presented by Dr. Gary G. Kohls
http://www.unobserver.com/index.php?pagina=layout5.php&id=2518&blz=1