A Disaster in the Making, notes Israel Rafalovich

The United States and several of its allies split in the last few days over the ferocity of Israel's military attacks on Lebanon and Gaza. The reaction separates the United States from two other members of the Quartet which has been pursuing an Israeli/Palestinian peace.

While the Americans suggest that Israel has been provoked and add that Israel has the "right to defend herself", the European Union statement criticized the Israeli response.

Statements from the British, French and Russian governments referred to the use of "disproportionate force" by Israel.

The international community, led by the United States, has forfeited almost all legitimacy in the Muslim world, has allowed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to slide towards, almost a lost case and and favored Israel's land grab that guarantee's bloodshed for generations to come.

The bombing of Beirut airport and the imposition of a blockade on Lebanon constitute a crisis that is a war.

It takes the Middle East back to the dark days of 1982. This all goes far beyond the legitimate right of Israel to defend itself.

The Israeli action is disproportionate, dangerous and illegal under international law that outlaws the collective punishment of an entire population which has already resulted in heavy loss of civilian life, especially children.

Wreaking devastation on Lebanon is unlikely to secure Israel's goals.

Furthermore, there is great doubt that Israel can achieve it goals because Hezbollah is a strong Lebanese player with a strong foothold in the south of Lebanon and the international community will oppose a full fledged Israeli war in Lebanon which will destabilise the whole Middle East.

Israel now is adjusting to the change in a culture of war, of which it had the mastery of technology over its Arab neighbors. This is not the way Israel will be able to achieve its goals and what Israel is trying to do now is to change the balance of power in the area.

The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers represents a level of Arab tactical prowess that Israel was not used to before and thought it in Israel's domain only.

Hamas and Hezbollah have struck an Israeli nerve, and the Israeli military feels compelled to restore its credibility.

Israel seems, according to latest developments on the ground, to unroll a war plan that says that any invasion into Lebanon must be devastating to Hezbollah; it must go deep and must occupy temporarily and destroy Hezbollah.

Israel should have learned some lessons from the Lebanese quagmire it created in 1982 when it used a flimsy pretext to invade Lebanon to crush the PLO. It resulted in the death of 19,000 Lebanese.

That conflict, marked a nadir in Israel's international reputation.

It took 18 year before the Israelis withdrew, creating a determined new enemy among the southern Shia.

Inspired and helped by Iran, they fought under the banner of the Islamic Resistance Movement which later became the Hezbollah of today -"the party of God".

The Israelis are planning now to do substantially more than retributive air strikes. The plan is to go fairly deep into Lebanon. It will be an invasion.

Given the missile attacks on Haifa, they will go even further; they will move deep into the Bekaa Valley, the center of Hezbollah's power, and this would bring the Israelis, once again, close to Beirut.

The Israelis are considering using their air force to attack Syrian facilities, unless the Syrian Government will give the Israelis credible assurances that Syria will not intervene in Lebanon. In the last few days, there have been contacts between Egypt and Syria on the subject.

Syria is the key to a peaceful resolution, but they will be unwilling to act decisively, as the cost of stopping it is higher than the cost letting it go on.
Israel's intention is to go into Lebanon and wreak havoc and withdraw. The consequence will be to go deeper and faster and cause a bigger devastation, but no long-term occupation.

At the moment there is expected to be a rapid Israeli operation, in order to force Hezbollah to move its rockets out of the range of Haifa.

Being occupied with Iraq as well as Iran and its nuclear program, U.S. President Bush appears to hope the Lebanese problem will go away.

It is not enough to ritually defend Israel's right to defend itself and damn be the consequences.

If there was a glimmer of hope the last few days, it was that the international community is waking up to the risks involved in this widening and potentially disastrous confrontation.

No one knows how the war against Hamas and Hezbollah will end. There is reason to worry that it may become a war on three fronts, including the Syrian front.

Israel Rafalovich


Please also see:

WFP sends emergency assessment team to Lebanon
http://www.wfp.org/english/?ModuleID=137&Key=2169

Stabilization force would give Lebanese Government time to organize – Annan
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=19234&Cr=leban&Cr1=

In Jerusalem, UN team holds ‘intensive and productive’ talks on current crisis – official
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=19235&Cr=middle&Cr1=east

JVP In-Depth: Israel's Attacks on Gaza and Lebanon
http://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org/publish/article_663.shtml

Holy Land Christian Ecumenical Foundation Statements http://www.hcef.org/hcef

Arab American Institute Organizing Emergency Summit on Middle East Crisis http://www.aaiusa.org

Lebanon: Hezbollah Rocket Attacks on Haifa Designed to Kill Civilians
Anti-personnel Ball Bearings Meant to Harm “Soft” Targets

http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2006/07/18/lebano13760.htm

Israel: Investigate Attack on Civilians in Lebanon
IDF Must Take Precautions to Protect Civilians Fleeing Areas at Risk
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2006/07/17/isrlpa13756.htm

Questions and Answers on Hostilities Between Israel and Hezbollah
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2006/07/17/lebano13748.htm

UN official: we come to Lebanon to declare our solidarity
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/060717/2006071725.html

Lebanese abroad denounce Israel's aggressions on Lebanon
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/060717/2006071708.html

Mubarak: Israel will fail by its mistake
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/060717/2006071717.html

US gives Israel a blank check to wage war
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/jul2006/isra-j17.shtml

G8 leaders line up behind Israeli aggression in Lebanon and Gaza
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/jul2006/leba-j17.shtml

Gideon Levy: Operation Peace for the IDF
http://www.palestinechronicle.com/story-07180615641.htm

Lebanon toll passes 230
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0529EDB8-8164-470C-BBB8-72734692D22C.htm

Atrocities in the Promised Land
http://www.palestinechronicle.com/story-071706210229.htm

Israeli Soldiers Contaminate Water Tanks of Human Rights Workers
http://www.palsolidarity.org/main/2006/07/18/israeli-soldiers-contaminate-water-tanks-of-human-rights-workers

Israel Burning at Both Ends
http://www.islamonline.net/English/Muslim_Affairs/Asia/PoliticsEconomy/2006/07/03.shtml